Monday, 23 January 2012

Ken Livingstone ahead in two latest polls


I was on LBC this morning with Nick Ferrari talking about a new Comres poll which puts him two points (51% to 49%) ahead of Boris Johnson.

This follows a YouGov poll last week with almost identical results, suggesting that Boris is managing to lose what many had assumed would be a straightforward election.

I've written more about why this is over at The Scoop:

"In 2008, Ken lost because he appeared complacent and out of touch, whilst Boris campaigned on the issues that Londoners cared about.

So whilst Ken banged on about climate change, Boris banged on about knife crime. Four years later and the opposite is now true.

Whilst Ken talks about fares, Boris talks about the 50p tax rate. Whilst Boris talks about helping bankers, Ken talks about helping commuters."

The big problem for Boris is that he has spent the past six months talking about issues (the European referendum, 50p tax rate, airports in Kent) which most Londoners simply don't care about.

Ken meanwhile has been banging on about the three issues (cost of living, transport and crime) which Londoners do care about when choosing their next Mayor.

At times Boris has seemed more concerned with the next election to be leader of the Conservative Party, than the current election, to be Mayor of London.

This has all been reflected in today's poll the details of which state that:

"Since our last poll in November 2011 Ken has overtaken Boris not only after reallocating second preferences (as the headline figure shows) but also on first preference votes (now leads 46% to 44% - in Nov Boris had an 8% point lead)

Boris’s loss of support is well demonstrated in the inner/outer split: in inner London Boris has 32% support - lower than Ken enjoys in outer London (43%).  Similarly Boris has 57% support in his own stronghold of outer London but this is again lower than Ken has in inner London (68%)."

The difficulty for Ken is that he has to persuade Londoners that after five years as GLC leader and two terms as Mayor, he still has something to offer.

He also has to realise that fares was always going to be his ace card. The other issues are much harder for him to win on and the election is still a long way away. 

The good news for Boris is that he still leads amongst outer Londoners and older Londoners, two groups most likely to vote.

And after two polls putting him behind, he may finally realise that being the Mayor of London is not his by right.


-UPDATE- The full numbers are now up: Boris leads Ken on the economy and crime, but Ken leads Boris on fares and "Knows most about the concerns of ordinary Londoners." There's still everything to play for. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Boris has done nothing for London. Anyone but Boris for mayor!